Rocket Mortgage Classic....discussion, odds and info

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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Field​


156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, June 29
Defending Champion: Tony Finau




2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Key Stats​


Opportunities Gained
Eagles Gained
Par 4s Gained 350-400 Yards
Putting 5-15 Feet


Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com


2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Course​


Course: Detroit Golf Club
Yardage: 7,370
Par: 72
Greens: Bentgrass (with Poa)


Par 3s (4): Average distance – 192 yards


  • The two longest Par 3s come within a three-hole stretch, both are among the four toughest holes on the course and carry a bogey-or-worse rate of at least 17%.

Par 4s (10): Average distance – 429 yards


  • Variety is the spice of Par 4s … this course has five checking in under 400 yards and four others that measure over 450.

Par 5s (4): Average distance – 580 yards


  • These are the four easiest holes on the course and the mammoth No. 4 (635 yards) is the only one that provides any resistance (the other three all carry an eagle rate of at least 1.9%)

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Past Winners​


  • 2022: Tony Finau -26
  • 2021: Cam Davis -18
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau -23
  • 2019: Nate Lashley -25

2022: Tony Finau (-26, five clear of Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith and Cameron Young)


  • Finau was tied for the lead after Thursday (64), the start of a consistent week that saw him card four round of 67 or better
  • Three of the top-four in SG: Off-the-Tee for the week cashed top-10 paychecks (shoutout to Chris Gotterup for managing to lead the field in this category and somehow finish in 40th)

2021: Cameron Davis (-18, playoff win over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann)


  • Davis shot 67-68 in all four rounds, consistency that allowed him to overcome being five back after Thursday
  • Each of the top-11 finishers gained strokes both in approach and putting (five of them gained at least two strokes in both categories)

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23, three clear of Matthew Wolff)


  • He picked up six strokes on Sunday over Wolff by posting his best round of the tournament (65). He carded a 67 or better in all four days.
  • Five of the top-7 putters for the week cashed top-10 paychecks, including a tournament best +7.8 strokes putting by DeChambeau

2019: Nate Lashley (-25, six clear of Doc Redman)


  • Lashley was a shot clear of the field after Thursday courtesy of a 63 and he replicated that round on moving day to remove all doubt.
  • 11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes putting on the field from 5-10 and 10-15 feet (Lashley was +9.2 strokes cumulative from those two categories)

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Notes​


Now that the Pete Dye portion of the schedule has been completed, we move on to the Donald Ross phase. With Detroit moving a month ahead on the schedule this year, the Ross course won’t be played in rapid succession like other years. Ross courses include:


  • Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage)
  • Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
  • East Lake GC (TOUR Championship)

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is an amalgamation of both courses at Detroit Golf Club. There has been some re-routing for the tournament, including using a hole from the South Course. The South’s first hole will function as the tournament’s third hole and will be played from the North Course’s first hole tee box. Meanwhile, the regular eighth and ninth holes will be No. 1 and No. 2 for the tournament.


One of the most generous courses on TOUR off the tee, the field has hit over 50% of its drives over 300 yards at Detroit Golf Club while finding the short grass at a 65% clip. Unsurprisingly, this is where Bryson tested out the strategy that resulted in him hoisting the cleverly named U.S. Open Trophy later in 2020. Bryson became the first PGA TOUR winner to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.7) and Strokes Gained: Putting (+7.8) during the ShotLink era. And yes, Bryson also led the field in Driving Distance (351 yards)


It was unclear at the time whether or not this strategy would hold up or if it was just a Bryson thing. But in the two years since, driving has proven to play a major role in success at the top. That, and putting.


Despite its 7,370 yards in total, Detroit Golf Club is actually much shorter. I talk every year about Riviera having hidden distance because of elevation and a lot of yardage saved on one Par 4 and the Par 5s, but DGC is kind of the opposite. There are four Par 4s measuring between 450 and 500 yards, but since the average driving distance is around 300 yards, those holes don’t actually play that long. Add on three of the four Par 5s which can’t protect themselves from eagles, and you have an average approach distribution that resembles the Travelers from last week, a course that came in just over 6,800 yards. The majority of approaches will be coming from 175 yards and in — that’s scoring time. Hence why the winning score has been well into the -20s three of the four years of this event’s existence.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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More stars than expected

More professional champions than shithole Detroit has seen in a looooong time...lol


2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Full Field: Eight of World Top 30 Coming to Detroit​



Rocket Mortgage Classic Full Field​

156 players

Aberg, Ludvig
Alexander, Tyson
An, Byeong Hun
Armour, Ryan
Bennett, Sam +
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan
Bhatia, Akshay
Blair, Zac
Bradley, Keegan
Bramlett, Joseph
Brehm, Ryan
Buckley, Hayden
Byrd, Jonathan
Champ, Cameron
Collins, Chad
Cone, Trevor
Cook, Austin
Daffue, MJ
Dahmen, Joel
Davis, Cam
Detry, Thomas
Donald, Luke +
Dou, Zecheng
Dufner, Jason
Duncan, Tyler
Echavarria, Nico
Eckroat, Austin
Endycott, Harrison
English, Harris
Finau, Tony
Fowler, Rickie
Frittelli, Dylan
Garnett, Brice
Gerard, Ryan +
Ghim, Doug
Gligic, Michael
Glover, Lucas
Gordon, Will
Goya, Tano
Grant, Brent
Griffin, Ben
Griffin, Lanto
Hadley, Chesson
Hadwin, Adam
Hahn, James
Haley II, Paul
Hall, Harry
Hardy, Nick
Harman, Brian
Harrington, Scott
Hickok, Kramer
Higgo, Garrick
Higgs, Harry
Hodges, Lee
Hoffman, Charley
Hoge, Tom
Homa, Max
Hossler, Beau
Hubbard, Mark
Im, Sungjae
Jaeger, Stephan
Johnson, Zach
Kim, S.H.
Kim, Tom
Kirk, Chris
Kizzire, Patton
Knox, Russell
Kodaira, Satoshi
Kraft, Kelly
Laird, Martin
Landry, Andrew
Lashley, Nate
Lebioda, Hank
Lingmerth, David
Lipsky, David
List, Luke
Long, Adam
Lower, Justin
Malnati, Peter
Martin, Ben
Martin, Kyle #
Matsuyama, Hideki
Matthews, Brandon
McGreevy, Max
Merritt, Troy
Moore, Ryan
Moore, Taylor
Morikawa, Collin
Mullinax, Trey
NeSmith, Matt
Noren, Alex
Norlander, Henrik
Norrman, Vincent
Novak, Andrew
Núñez, Augusto
Palmer, Ryan
Pan, C.T.
Pendrith, Taylor
Percy, Cameron
Piercy, Scott
Potgieter, Aldrich +
Putnam, Andrew
Rai, Aaron
Ramey, Chad
Reavie, Chez
Redman, Doc
Riley, Davis
Rodgers, Patrick
Roy, Kevin
Ryder, Sam
Sargent, Gordon +
Schenk, Adam
Schmid, Matti
Schwab, Matthias
Shelton, Robby
Sigg, Greyson
Simpson, Webb
Smalley, Alex
Smotherman, Austin
Snedeker, Brandt
Spaun, J.J.
Stallings, Scott
Steelman, Ross +
Stevens, Sam
Straka, Sepp
Streb, Robert
Stuard, Brian
Suh, Justin
Svensson, Adam
Tarren, Callum
Taylor, Ben
Thomas, Justin
Thompson, Davis
Todd, Brendon
Trainer, Martin
Tway, Kevin
van Rooyen, Erik
Walker, Jimmy
Wallace, Matt
Watney, Nick
Werbylo, Trevor
Werenski, Richy
Westmoreland, Kyle
Whaley, Vince
Willett, Danny
Wu, Brandon
Wu, Dylan
Young, Carson
Yu, Kevin
Yuan, Carl
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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A couple bettting ideas



Tony Finau to Win (+1200)


Getting 12/1 on the betting favorite to win a PGA TOUR event is not something we see much these days, and I truly think there’s value in this number for Finau. He has become a true master of the birdie-fest, winning this very event last year at 26-under-par and eviscerating the rest of the field by five strokes. He also won the 3M Open last year at 17-under, three strokes clear of anyone else. If we then fast forward to this season, he went down to Mexico and absolutely shredded the Mexico Open, finishing 24-under and beating World. No. 2 Jon Rahm by three strokes. Simply put, Finau just loves easy tracks.


The list of guys who have won four times over the past calendar year is quite small, and Finau has shown to be a stone cold killer after getting the monkey off his back at the 2021 Northern Trust. He’s not been playing his best golf right now, having not posted a top-19 finish since his win in Mexico. This is clearly baked into his number, however. Despite his recent so-so play, Finau still ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 48 rounds and boasts the most win equity of anyone at the top of the board this week.


I think pushing all our chips in on the defending champion this week is the way to go.







Sepp Straka to Win (+4500)


Straka will be making his fifth start at Detroit Golf Club, having played this event each of the first four years it’s been on the PGA TOUR schedule. In that time he’s posted a T11 and T8 to go along with two missed cuts. That basically encapsulates Straka’s career, as he’s extremely boom-or-bust. However, he has been a bit more consistent this season, making nine of 13 cuts so far in 2023, including three top-10s.


Straka has also been hitting the ball really well of late, sitting 13th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds in this field. We also know he could close an event if he if he’s close to the lead come Sunday, evidenced by his win at the Honda Classic two years ago. This field dries up after the few big names at the top, and it’s difficult to find guys with true win equity. I like this number on Straka quite a bit.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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LOL at using Finau as my "cant miss", wheel em with the crowd pick on all 30 DFS lineups......
 

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Im HEAVY on all 3 in my DFS lineups.....
This is never a good tournament to play chalk up top. Studs crash here at high clip. And nasty yams is not a golfer you wanna back at a birdie fest and a weak field. He is liable to WD or mail it in. Too volatile these type tournaments.

Back the Asians at Wyndham in a month. They crush there
 

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LOL at using Finau as my "cant miss", wheel em with the crowd pick on all 30 DFS lineups......
Never go full retard all in on pga dfs. 6/6 is hard as fuck. And once you go all in on a golfer it’s an automatic MC. Never fails
 

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Never go full retard all in on pga dfs. 6/6 is hard as fuck. And once you go all in on a golfer it’s an automatic MC. Never fails
Probably why I suck at PGA DFS......only thing saving me is that my bets have been fairly low

Ive also been playing their Reignmakers game .....not having any success there either but again Ive been sticking to relatively cheap guys to go along with whatever freebies they have given me so far.

Had the best lineup ever in relationship to odds this week and still no success even with Captain Morikawa crushing it

Morikawa, Kim, Smalley, Straka, Justin Thomas.....all were no more than 50 to 1 to win.


pga.png
 

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Probably why I suck at PGA DFS......only thing saving me is that my bets have been fairly low

Ive also been playing their Reignmakers game .....not having any success there either but again Ive been sticking to relatively cheap guys to go along with whatever freebies they have given me so far.

Had the best lineup ever in relationship to odds this week and still no success even with Captain Morikawa crushing it

Morikawa, Kim, Smalley, Straka, Justin Thomas.....all were no more than 50 to 1 to win.


View attachment 71412
Just play tiers. Then low owned

Example. Tier 1 is say 10k guys
Rory 26%
Brooks 9%
Rahm 21%
Scottie 34%

Blindly play Brooks.

Tier 2 9k
Pick a guy not super chalky

Tier 3 8k
Pick two guys. One somewhat popular the other nobody wants type low owned guy
 

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Look at the chalk this week.

Exkorat
Kim
Nasty yams
Benny An
Smalley
Hubbard
Spaun

Just fade the chalky plays. Some will hit so play 1-2 max chalk plays then just blindly pivot off to guys super close in price nobody is playing.


I played lots of hadwin because nobody was playing that chump. He was sandwiched in between like straka eckorat an Smalley rai and aberg who everyone was playing. Sometimes just do that. It can work out sometimes. More then not tbh

And birdie fest are harder anyway. Next week the Deere another birdie fest. Chalk up top will bust besides 1-2 guys. Denny Mcarthy in a prime spot to get a win next week but he will be a chalk bomb probably. I’d either bet Denny and fade in dfs or the opposite go all in dfs don’t bet.
 

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